Tuesday, May 31, 2016

The Current North Korea's Missle Capability

Pyongyang possesses a substantial arsenal of short-and medium-range mobile ballistic missiles deployed throughout the country with 500 Hwasong-5 (Scud-B), Hwasong-6(Scud-C) missiles with a range of 300-400 km, and 200 Rodong systems with a range of 1,000km.

 Each of these missiles can carry nuclear warheads as well as chemical and biological warheads. Though their primary role is not to carry the nuclear warheads but to disrupt or slowdown the operations of airbases and military facilities, they are critical to South Korea’s security.


A little more information about Hwasong-5 
Source: https://www.google.co.kr/search?q=Hwasong-5+(Scud-B)&rlz=1C1HLDY_enSG693SG693&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjMr9rG6YTNAhWEg6YKHTPdCtMQ_AUIBygB&biw=1366&bih=643#imgrc=dE8DpWE5gZyWTM%3A


Hwasong 5 is North Korea's first tactical ballistic missile that was in service in 1985, with its first missle prototypes completed in 1984.  Development of the definitive version of Hwasong-5 was at a slow rate with minor improvement over the original Soviet R-17 Elbrus missle.  Range of the Hwasong-5 was increase from 280 to 320km, with a 1000kg warhead attached to it and a slight modification of the Isayev engine.


Hwasong 6

Source: https://www.google.co.kr/search?q=Hwasong-5+(Scud-B)&rlz=1C1HLDY_enSG693SG693&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjMr9rG6YTNAhWEg6YKHTPdCtMQ_AUIBygB&biw=1366&bih=643#tbm=isch&q=Hwasong+6&imgrc=LkLJi6LIAP9E_M%3A



What is THAAD?

Recently, the issue about whether South Korea will employ THAAD had been a hot topic over the internet. So what THAAD really is?

Following are the summary about what THAAD is about.



THAAD, abbreviation for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, refers to a missile defense system that aims to intercept the incoming missile at the terminal phase. 
Source: https://www.google.co.kr/search?q=thaad&rlz=1C1HLDY_enSG693SG693&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8w-_V6ITNAhWKlJQKHSWJCPsQ_AUIBygB&biw=1366&bih=643#imgrc=NXy4G66jgmSgoM%3A

THAAD system is known to cover the range of 150km height and 200km in distance, with each missile having 6.17m of length and 34cm of diameter. The system fires two missiles at a time with each showing 70% of success rate, thus together adding up to success rate around 90%.

 The most significant feature however, lies in the AN/TYP-2 radar that is included in THAAD artillery. As a type of X-band radar, AN/TYP-2 radar possesses the capacity to detect objects as small as a baseball within the range of 1800km. 
Source: http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/antpy2/


This implies that placing a THAAD artillery in Pyongtaek region crystalizes not only North Korean missiles and nuclear weapons, but also those of China that are placed near the coastline.

 Each THAAD artillery consists of six missile launchers each equipped with eight missiles, adding up to 48 missiles per artillery. Currently, the US possesses four THAAD artilleries around the world. 

[Personal Analysis] China's attitude towards reunification


Source: https://www.google.co.kr/search?q=china+north+korea&rlz=1C1HLDY_enSG693SG693&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiL1OSG5oTNAhWEI5QKHVBWBzIQ_AUIBygB&biw=1366&bih=599#imgrc=8_JjSzbUwm9lAM%3A



As for the stand of China, their support for reunification is uncertain.

There are interpretations that China will support the unification of Korea as they may refer to have a free, united, democratic, economically dynamic and military capable Korea.  However with the US troops stationed at the Korea, the china’s position is evolving.

The relationship between China and North Korea had changed over times. Relationship between the two countries used to be extremely close, but in recent years, China’s media had been frequently carries out commentary critical of the North Korea and the Chinese are increasingly being allowed to talk about the negative aspect of North Korea. From the North Korea’s side, there is unwillingness in accepting the advice of China to adopt a Chinese-style economic and structural reform. This also caused China to be quit unpleased as their North Korea policy had been about the possibility to gradually transform the North Korea economy nature.

Some incidents that unnerved china will be the attack conducted by North Korea towards South Korea’s YeonPyeong Island in November 2010 and the execution of Jang Song Thaek, one of the few senior North Korean official who have close tie with China.

Moreover, there were interpretations that the Chinese officials were sick and tired of North Korea. Sources had state that majority of the Chinese viewed reunification as something that will happen and that it will better that it is under the control of Seoul.

Still, despites these unpleasant incidents and the transformation of relationship between China and North Korea, China’s bottom line on the Korean Peninsula is to focus on maintain an stability and to avoid conflict near its northeast border at all cost


Reason that china may oppose in the reunification will probably be the increase risk of violence, refugee flows or the escalation of tension near its border with North Korea. Moreover, it is almost certain that China will reject any approach by the United Stated and South Korea should they not take China’s security concerns into account. China is also suspicious about creating a united, democratic, economically dynamic and military capable Korea on its border, especially if Korea will remain as an ally of the United Stated after reunification, with the significant presence of Us Military in Korea. 

Hence regarding this, one of the major tasks is to convince China that the reunification of Korea will be in China’s interest. Such as shaping China’s’ understanding of how  a post-unification Korea Peninsula will be like and convince China that the absorption of North Korea regime into the Republic of Korea will be more of China’s interest than the current situation in Korea Peninsula.

[Personal Analysis] US attitude towards reunification


Source: https://www.google.co.kr/search?q=us+north+korea&rlz=1C1HLDY_enSG693SG693&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi9gPjg5YTNAhUCX5QKHfGyAS0Q_AUICCgC&biw=1366&bih=643#imgrc=JphYglIXVDJ5PM%3A

The United States officially express their firm support in the reunification of Korea and with this, it can be seen as US strong interest towards a united Korea that is free, democratic and led by the Republic of Korea.

In an event of reunification, US policy interest will be to ensure a peaceful and stable region, prevention of the emergence of new security threats and supporting Korea as it create a unified, democratic,market-oriented society and economy that benefits all the korean people.

Moreover, the united state will contribute in Korea’s reconstruction, rehabilitation and reconciliation
process. Together with their priority in dismantling the North Korean military machine and eliminating the nuclear weapons. The United State will also undertake the role as a security guarantor, even with  the decrease in military presence and a new rationale for its alliance with Korea.

[Personal Viewpoint and Analysis of South Korea's reunification policy by President Roh and President Lee

From my personal analysis of President Roh’s policy, I believe that his policy could  increase the civil and cultural exchanges between two Koreas and is able to  maintain good government to government level relationship. This is because, effort had been made to  support the North Korean people, which in turn increases economic, social , cultural  and human right in North Korea.

 But there are also criticisms against President Roh's policy as he argues that this policy is  carrot only unilateral concession with too much government spending.  Moreover, as it emphasizes balanced approach, U.S and South Korea alliance is weaken.

 Most importantly, with nuclear test in 2006, this policy overlooks threat of North Korea.

 On the other hand, President Lee’s policy  had  reduced the  government spending on unification matters and  spending was used for the construct of South Korea's infrastructure.

President  Lee improved alliance with U.S. as he had prioritized relationship with U.S.. However, due to this strict policy, exchanges between two Koreas decreased and mistrust between two governments grew. So, provocation from North Korea and tension between two Korean military had increased.


In conclusion, after my personal analysis and deduction between the strength and weakness each government, we realize that with conditional engagement South Korea can have many bargaining chips to deal with North Korea and with comprehensive engagement South Korea can have civilian level benefits. This include improvement of North Korean citizen’s lives and exchanges between two Korean people. Therefore, I personally feel that adopting the two policies through  enhance each strengths will be a great idea and one of the ways to promote reunification.

[President Park Geun Hye's Policy] The Korean Peninsula TrustBuilding Process


Source: https://www.google.co.kr/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.nateimg.co.kr%2ForgImg%2Fkh%2F2015%2F02%2F23%2Fenkh_lBDhC1.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fpann.news.nate.com%2Finfo%2F256588064&docid=3AN1vEy1ZHqAcM&tbnid=wZ7lrCNFptmgrM%3A&w=540&h=381&itg=1&bih=599&biw=1366&ved=0ahUKEwif9uGkyYTNAhVirKYKHYJ2DKAQMwgeKAMwAw&iact=mrc&uact=8

As all of you know, President Park Geun Hye  is the eleventh and current president, who is also the first woman elected as the  president of South Korea.  After she took office in 2013 from President Lee Myung Bak, she had introduced a policy known as The Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process and this is what the President Park's administrative is currently reinforcing.

So what does it means by the Trust Building or the Korean Peninsula Trust Building Process?


Source: https://goo.gl/Glvmjk
To make it easier to understand, this actually means that South Korea aims to develop inter-korean relation, establishing peace on the Korean Peninsula and building a foundation for unification. A foundation for unification can be build through formation of inter-korean confidence based on sound security. 

This policy tries to take strong action against North Korea’s provocation, solve Korean Peninsula’s security crisis such as nuclear issue fundamentally and accept past policies’ merits.

[President Lee Myung Bak's Reunification Policy] Mutual Benefits and Common Prosperity Policy


Source:  https://goo.gl/Glvmjk

The 10th President of South Korea, who took office from 2008 to 2013, President Lee Myung Bak had introduced the Mutual Benefits and Common Prosperity Policy when he took over the office.

In this policy, President Lee Myung Bak had argued about '비핵 개방 3000’,  which literally translate as Vision 3000 through Denuclearization and Openess.

This actually means that in an event if North Korea were to denuclearize and open up their country, South Korea will support them and increase their GDP per capita income to an amount of $3000. For your information, an estimate of North's Korea  GDP per capita income in 2011 is $1,800.

Hence, this policy is considered as a conditional step-by-step assistance to North Korea, making it a policy that is said to have taken a much tougher stance as compared to the previoud president, President Roh Moo Hyun's Peace and Prosperity policy.